SABERMETRIC LOOK AT THE MARLINS OFFSEASON
NET WORTH: 14.0 Wins gained
Net Worth: 2.3 Wins Lost
TOTAL: 11.7 Wins Gained
Now, some stuff will change. Morrison and Stanton will get better so more wins will be gained that way and the defense is a little worse and some other deductions in WAR will happen, but as of 2011, if the Marlins had had these guys and lost the players they lost in the offseason they would have been about 84-78 or so, so it looks as if 85 or 86 wins are possible give or take some. Now with four teams that’s not a playoff team but with 5 it very well could be. I personally think the Marlins could do better than that but they need Johnson to be healthy and Zambrano to be good and not wild. The Marlins have gotten a lot better for sure and these moves should make them better and should probably work out good.
A LOOK AT THE PLAYERS
Bell: He’s a good closer and some view him is overrated but I think he’s rated just fine. He will get some saves this year but he may start a slower decline pretty soon and moving parks shouldn’t have a huge effect because I feel that Marlins Park will be more of a pitcher’s park, though not completely. He’s a pretty good signing and it gives the Marlins a legit closer wand rounds out the Marlins bullpen and makes the team better. He should have about a 1.5-sh WAR the next few years and he has a chance of having a really great year too, he’s a good signing.
Buehrle: He’s the perfect number three starter and though at the end of the deal he will be doing a bit worse-like 4.00 ERAs, this year he should do pretty good and this year be one of the league’s better number three starters. This should be one of the better signings of the offseason and he should have a really good year and help the Marlins a lot, of of their best signings of the offseason
Reyes: They needed what he does. They now have another all-star, who is younger and is fast and can play a pretty good shortstop. His 2012 should be pretty close to his 2011 except with a lower batting average, but still a .300. he’s the best signing and should help the most mostly because his talent is the best. The Marlins will like this guy and he’s a special player worth what they signed him for
Zambrano: He has talent but he’s a big risk, he should easily improve on last year if he has the right attitude but the question is how much and I say not by too much considering his indicators have gotten lower each season and he’s starting to climb in age. The thing is that he only has to be a five starter though and that he can be. He could be an above average guy there at best and most ;likely should do his job, for this season.
Others: Rowand wll be a good fourth outfielder and LeBlanc has some talent for a few spot starts when needed and since both cost close to nothing, those are pretty good small pickups.
LOSES: Other than losing a few role players who weren’t even that good, the Marlins lost Vazquez, who is pretty good but they made up for him and more with Buehrle.
BOTTOM LINE: These moves make the Marlins a really good and tough team for 2012 and 2013 but after that they need to use their youth some because some of their signings will start declining. They should be a playoff contender until then though, but it will be tough in this division. I could see the Marlins winning as low as 84 games or as many as 94, but realistically it looks like 86-87 is a good number and without the moves they’d probably be about an 80 win team. These moves could help them into the playoffs. As for me, I say they’re still a but short but if they start hot they can stay hot or grab another bat in July and they could easily make the playoffs. They are a good teams and because of these moves they are great